Valuing a Stock, Second Edition
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【推荐级别】
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☆☆☆☆☆
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【下载次数】 |
25 次 |
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【作者】 |
Gary Gray etc.
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【出版社】 |
McGraw-Hill
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【文件格式】 |
PDF
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【ISBN】 |
0-07-141666-8
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【资料语言】 |
英文
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【文件大小】 |
2.83MB
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【上传时间】 |
2008-05-03
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【共享者】 |
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资料说明：
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contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW 1
Financial Flameout 1
Good Companies—Hot Stocks—Ridiculous
Prices 2
The Investment Decision 4
The 10 Principles of Finance 5
Overview of the Book 7
CHAPTER 2 THE 10 PRINCIPLES OF FINANCE AND HOW TO
USE THEM 13
Principle 1: Higher Returns Require Taking
More Risk 14
Principle 2: Efficient Capital Markets Are Tough
to Beat 21
Principle 3: Rational Investors Are Risk Averse 29
Principle 4: Supply and Demand Drive Stock
Prices in the Short-run 31
Principle 5: When Analyzing Returns, Simple
Averages Are Never Simple 34
Principle 6: Transaction Costs, Taxes, and
Inflation Are Your Enemies 36
Principle 7: Time and the Value of Money Are
Closely Related 40
Principle 8: Asset Allocation Is a Very Important
Decision 43
Principle 9: Asset Diversification Will
Reduce Risk 48
Principle 10: An Asset Pricing Model Should be
Used to Value Investments 54
Summary 56
CHAPTER 3 STOCK VALUATION: SOME PRELIMINARIES 61
Introduction to Valuation 61
DCF Stock Valuation 63
We Caused the High-Tech Bubble 69
Return to Stockholders 72
Stock Price—Too High?—Too Low?—Just Right? 77
Stock Valuation—Art, Science, or Magic? 82
Stock Valuation Approaches: Fundamental,
Technical, and MPT 83
Stock Value, Stock Price, and Emotions 88
Stock Value, Stock Price, and Analyst
Recommendations 90
When to Buy, When to Sell:
Our Recommendation 92
Where Do We Go Next? 94
CHAPTER 4 HOW TO VALUE A STOCK 97
Some Definitions Relating to Cash Flow 97
The Free Cash Flow to the Firm Approach 102
Why DCF and Not EPS? 108
The Discounted FCFF Valuation Approach 110
Microsoft—A Simple DCF Example 115
Valuation—Growth versus Value, Large Cap
versus Small Cap 123
Valuation—The Next Step 124
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTING EXPECTED CASH FLOW 127
The Five Chinese Brothers 127
Growth Rates and the Excess Return Period 128
Net Operating Profit Margin and NOP 138
Income Tax Rate and Adjusted Taxes 141
Net Investment 143
Incremental Working Capital 147
viii CONTENTS
Free Cash Flow to the Firm 151
Valuation Exercise: Estimating Free Cash Flow
for Cisco 152
CHAPTER 6 ESTIMATING THE COST OF CAPITAL 157
Don’t Count Until You Discount 157
WACC and Market Capitalization 161
Estimating ConEd’s WACC 166
The Cost of Common Equity and Shares
Outstanding 167
The After-Tax Cost of Debt and Debt
Outstanding 174
The Cost of Preferred Stock and Amount
Outstanding 177
WACC Calculation—ConEd 178
WACC Calculation—Cisco 179
Balance Sheet Items in the Valuation Process:
Our Recommendation 179
Valuation Exercise: Cisco 182
After the Cost of Capital—The Next Step 183
CHAPTER 7 FINDING INFORMATION FOR VALUATIONS 185
Save a Tree—Use the Internet 185
The Internet and Investment Information 186
Cash Flow Valuation Inputs—Easy to Find 194
Cash Flow Valuation Inputs Requiring
Estimation 199
Cost of Capital Valuation Inputs 200
Custom Valuations—The Next Step 203
Valuation Exercise: Cisco 203
CHAPTER 8 VALUING A STOCK—PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 205
Overview 205
Valuing Citigroup—December 17, 2002 208
Valuing Merrill Lynch—December 18, 2002 220
Valuing Berkshire Hathaway—December 18, 2002 228
Valuing Washington REIT—December 20, 2002 237
Summary 247
Glossary 249
Acronyms 259
Bibliography 261
Index 265
preface
? Develop a spreadsheet to value a stock;
? Combine stocks in an efficiently structured investment portfolio;
? Manage your risk; and
? Use the 10 principles of finance to your advantage.
This book is a complete revision of Streetsmart Guide to Valuing a
Stock (1999). In the four years since the publication of Streetsmart, the
stock market has crashed, managers of many corporations such as Enron,
WorldCom, and Adelphia have been indicted for fraud, and certain
Wall Street stock analysts have been discredited and have attained
a business stature below that of used car salesmen. We feel that it is
time to place stock valuation within the context of some general rules
and concepts that are at the core of finance theory. This book explains
in simple terms the 10 principles of finance and describes how you can
use them to make better investment decisions and to estimate a stock’s
value.
This book is for all of you who mistakenly think you have to be a
stock market guru to value stocks like a pro. All the tools you need to
value stocks are outlined in the chapters that follow. All that is required
is a bit of patience, practice, and persistence.
You don’t need an MBA to understand the book’s concepts or the
10 principles. The goal of the book is to give all stock market participants—
individual investors, investment club members, stockbrokers,
SEC staffers, corporate managers, directors of corporate boards, and ordinary
people who want to learn about stock valuation—a simple quantitative
approach for estimating stock values. Our model is a recipe for
correctly and conservatively valuing common stock and increasing investment
profits.
In this book we describe how you can use Excel to write a spreadsheet
to value stocks with a minimum number of inputs. If you don’t
want to write a spreadsheet program, we show you how and where you
can purchase the computer software, which we have developed and
use in the book. Finally, we provide a free online stock valuation service
on our Web site, www.valuepro.net/.
If you’re technologically challenged, not to worry. You don’t need
a computer or an Internet connection to use the discounted free cash
flow method to value a stock. In Chapters 5 and 6 we describe how to
xii PREFACE
calculate and estimate, long-hand, a company’s free cash flow and cost
of capital—these are the essential ingredients of stock valuation. In
Chapter 7 we show you how and where to get the information that you
need for serious valuations. In Chapter 8 we value Citigroup, Merrill
Lynch, Berkshire Hathaway, and Washington REIT. This book will help
you to learn a lot about valuing stock even if spreadsheets and computers
are too intimidating for your personal tastes.
Our goal is to teach you about stock valuation by using a simple
and powerful valuation model. This book will make you a better informed,
more intelligent, more profitable investor and will help you to
understand why stocks such as Cisco trade at $14.45 and Berkshire
Hathaway trades at $72,000 per share. Our valuation approach revolves
...
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